Anticipating the Azerbaijan Grand Prix: Key Storylines and Challenges

Max Verstappen recently delivered a stunning performance at the Italian Grand Prix, securing a commanding victory that left both McLaren drivers, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, in his wake as they vie for the 2025 Formula 1 championship. As the teams prepare for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, the pivotal question remains: can Red Bull’s reigning champion maintain this momentum, or will the championship-leading McLaren squad reclaim supremacy in Baku?

The upcoming race is laden with intriguing narratives, from the ongoing discussions regarding Red Bull’s future driver lineup to the aspirations of Ferrari and the challenges faced by Mercedes rookie Andrea Kimi Antonelli. Here are several critical themes to watch for as the Azerbaijan Grand Prix approaches.

Red Bull’s Performance: A Turning Point or Just a Fluke?

Verstappen’s unexpected triumph at Monza raised eyebrows across the paddock. Ahead of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, the primary inquiry is whether that impressive display was merely a product of the Monza circuit’s unique characteristics or indicative of a genuine turnaround for Red Bull, a transformation that Helmut Marko has optimistically referred to as a “rebirth.”

Laurent Mekies from Ferrari emphasized that many elements contributing to the team’s success in Italy were specific to Monza, such as the effective low-downforce configuration and insights gained from a disappointing 2024 race. Conversely, Marko, Verstappen, and technical director Pierre Wache have suggested a shift in Red Bull’s approach to race weekends, leaning less on simulations and data analysis and more on the invaluable feedback from drivers.

The true test of this modified strategy will arrive in Singapore, a street circuit that, at first glance, doesn’t particularly favor Red Bull. However, Azerbaijan also features a street track layout, albeit one that might complement the RB21’s capabilities due to its lengthy straights. As a result, Verstappen could very well deliver another exceptional performance this weekend. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that his track record in Baku is not the strongest, with only one win to his name in 2022. He was poised for another victory in 2021 until a tire failure thwarted his chances.

McLaren’s Path: Navigating Internal Dynamics

In the aftermath of the controversy surrounding their driver swap at Monza, how will McLaren respond? Team principal Andrea Stella is expected to adhere to the tenets of team fairness, focusing more on internal values than external opinions. Piastri handled the request to let Norris pass after a botched pit stop with remarkable composure, understanding the importance of prioritizing the team’s overall success, especially as both drivers are in a tight contest for the championship.

However, Norris’s initial confusion upon receiving the order—given that his slower pit stop was a racing mishap—indicates that Stella and CEO Zak Brown may need to evaluate how to delicately balance allowing their drivers to race freely while maintaining team cohesion.

It’s possible that during the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, one driver may simply outperform the other and run away with the win. Yet, given their closely matched performance—Norris showed a slight advantage in Monza after a strong run from Piastri—it’s feasible that this weekend will see a direct showdown between the two. Last year, Piastri triumphed over Charles Leclerc in a thrilling street battle. What could happen if Norris finds himself in a similar contest this time around?

Tsunoda’s Urgent Need for Results

For Yuki Tsunoda, the pressure is mounting as he seeks to secure his position within Red Bull ahead of the 2026 season. With Isack Hadjar poised to become Verstappen’s teammate, and Arvid Lindblad set to join Red Bull’s junior squad, Tsunoda’s future hangs in the balance. This situation sets up a direct competition between Tsunoda and Liam Lawson for the coveted seat alongside Lindblad.

Having spent four seasons at the Faenza outfit before his promotion to Red Bull this year, it would be detrimental for Tsunoda to return to the junior team as he approaches his late 20s. Thus, his only hope lies in turning around his fortunes at Red Bull, despite having accumulated just nine points over 14 races and showing minimal improvement. Time is running out for Tsunoda; he must deliver immediate results, starting this weekend.

To achieve this, he needs a flawless grand prix weekend. In Monza, he demonstrated speed by reaching within two-tenths of Verstappen in Q1 and Q2, but a failure to execute an optimal lap in the final session left him starting from 10th on the grid. Subsequently, he became embroiled in the midfield tussle, sustaining damage to his car and ultimately finishing outside the points.

It is these minor setbacks that continue to hinder his progress. Red Bull aims to announce its 2026 lineup by the end of October, and Hadjar has already shown his capabilities. The onus is now on Tsunoda to prove he deserves a place in Formula 1.

Antonelli’s Challenge: Finding Stability Outside Europe

Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s European campaign has been disappointing, with only three points from nine races. His highlight of the summer was achieving his first F1 podium in Canada, but geographical factors do not fully explain his struggles. Antonelli has suggested that a rear-suspension update introduced by Mercedes in May altered the car’s dynamics, which has hindered both him and teammate George Russell.

Since reverting to the previous suspension model in Hungary, Antonelli claims his confidence has improved, yet his results haven’t significantly changed—finishing ninth in Budapest and tenth in Monza. While his race pace showed promise at Zandvoort, a collision with Leclerc dashed his hopes of scoring points. The pressure is mounting, as Toto Wolff labeled his performance in Monza as “underwhelming,” a rare moment of public scrutiny from the Mercedes chief who had previously defended Antonelli.

With Verstappen’s position at Red Bull seemingly secure, Antonelli has much to prove in the remaining races of the season. The question remains: can he reset his performance as the championship transitions to Baku?

Ferrari’s Quest for Victory: Leclerc’s Best Shot

Ferrari has faced a challenging season without securing a victory, a stark contrast to the previous year when Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc achieved early wins. The only way to garner the tifosi’s support is through success, and Ferrari has yet to deliver that this year. While the team currently holds second place in the championship—partially due to the underperformance of other drivers at Red Bull and Mercedes—there remains a glaring gap in their trophy cabinet for 2025.

Ferrari’s best opportunity to win this season came at Monaco, where Leclerc narrowly missed pole position, which is often crucial for securing victory on the tight circuit. However, a surprise pole in Hungary has rekindled optimism that the team may avoid a winless campaign, even though Leclerc ultimately lost ground to the McLarens in that race.

Leclerc also secured pole position in Baku last year and challenged the eventual winner, Piastri, until the final laps. Team principal Fred Vasseur appears optimistic about Ferrari’s prospects in Azerbaijan, stating, “I think we have a couple of tracks where we are supposed to be also in good shape. Starting with the next one. We are historically always in good shape in Baku.”

As the races dwindle, the pressure is mounting. With formidable circuits ahead for McLaren and Red Bull seemingly revitalized, Leclerc and teammate Lewis Hamilton must seize any opportunity they can find on Baku’s fast streets.

In summary, the Azerbaijan Grand Prix promises to be a thrilling event filled with critical storylines and competitive rivalries. With Red Bull, McLaren, Mercedes, and Ferrari all vying for supremacy, fans can expect an action-packed race weekend that could have significant implications for the remainder of the season.