NASCAR Cup Series: An In-Depth Look at the Playoff Picture as the Regular Season Nears Its End

As the NASCAR Cup Series approaches the conclusion of its regular season, with just two races remaining, the competition is heating up. Tyler Reddick has made significant strides in securing his position for the postseason based solely on points. The recent victory by Shane van Gisbergen, his fourth of the 2025 season, has placed Reddick in a favorable spot on the points leaderboard, effectively preventing any new contenders from taking a win.

However, mathematically, three playoff spots remain unclaimed in the 16-driver playoff field, as the Cup Series gears up for the race at Richmond Raceway, culminating the regular season at Daytona International Speedway. Let’s break down the current standings after the race at Watkins Glen and analyze the scenarios for each driver.

Tyler Reddick: A Solid Position

Tyler Reddick, driving for 23XI Racing in his Toyota, currently sits at +117 points above the cut line. Although he lost five points at Watkins Glen, he managed to maintain a healthy margin over Alex Bowman, only falling back two points to the No. 48 car. This gap is crucial, as there is a 57-point difference between Reddick and Bowman. If Reddick can keep this distance at Richmond, he will secure a playoff spot, even if a new winner emerges. Should a previous winner take the checkered flag, Reddick’s playoff position becomes even more secure. The team at 23XI Racing must be feeling optimistic regarding their chances as the postseason approaches.

Alex Bowman: Navigating the Bubble

Currently sitting at +60 points, Alex Bowman from Hendrick Motorsports is in a more precarious position. While he has a comfortable lead over the cut line, he must be vigilant about the points gap between himself and Chris Buescher, which stands at just 26 points. With the unpredictable nature of superspeedway racing, nobody wants to enter Daytona in the 16th spot, as that driver would be at risk of elimination should any of the lower-ranked drivers score a victory. If a new winner emerges at Richmond, Bowman might find it challenging to secure enough points to maintain his position. His best-case scenario, aside from clinching a win himself, would be to keep Buescher at bay and hope for a repeat winner.

Chris Buescher: In the Driver’s Seat

Chris Buescher, representing RFK Racing in his Ford, is currently at +34 points. His performance at Watkins Glen was just what he needed, as he won a stage and finished third, making a strong showing for the No. 17 car. He managed to gain eleven crucial points on the cut line, where his teammate resides. However, Buescher’s position remains precarious, as he is the bubble driver. His focus should be on closing the gap to Bowman, thereby pushing the No. 48 car onto the bubble before heading to Daytona. If he remains in his current position, Buescher will have to contend with the likelihood that several drivers behind him could win at Daytona, potentially knocking him out of the playoff contention.

Ryan Preece: Desperate Times Call for Desperate Measures

Ryan Preece, driving for Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing, had a decent outing at Watkins Glen, yet it wasn’t enough to secure his playoff aspirations. Losing those eleven points has put him in a more desperate situation. With no wins in his previous 211 Cup starts, Preece knows that time is running out. Over the next two weeks, he must find a way to secure a victory, as points alone may not be enough to guarantee his place in the playoffs.

Drivers with a Must-Win Mentality

As we look toward the next two weeks, there are 19 drivers who find themselves in a “win or nothing” situation. Among them is Austin Dillon from Richard Childress Racing, who is currently ranked 28th in the standings. Dillon’s last win at Richmond was marked by a controversial finish where he took extreme measures to secure his position. If he can replicate that speed this weekend, he may have a significant opportunity to clinch a playoff berth, or perhaps his teammate Kyle Busch could also seize the moment.

Another driver to keep an eye on is Daniel Suarez, who led for 93 laps at Richmond last year. Trackhouse Racing, his team, achieved a double top-ten finish in that race, and they are riding high on momentum following SVG’s recent victory. Brad Keselowski has also shown impressive speed in the most recent short track race at Iowa and could be a contender once again at Richmond. However, a win for Keselowski would mean that his teammate would be at risk of being eliminated from playoff contention.

Front Row Motorsports and Spire Motorsports, both operating as three-car teams, have all their drivers in a must-win scenario. Unless one of their drivers manages to pull off a surprising victory this weekend, their only hope for playoff contention will hinge on the finale at Daytona. Other multi-car teams without any current playoff drivers include Kaulig Racing and Legacy Motor Club. However, the most significant team facing a must-win situation is undoubtedly the No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. Ty Gibbs, who remains winless after three years in the Cup Series, is under pressure as time is running out for him to join his teammates in the quest for the championship.

The Road Ahead: Richmond and Daytona

As the NASCAR Cup Series heads into Richmond, the stakes could not be higher. Drivers are not only battling for points but also for their dreams of playoff glory. With the unpredictability of racing, particularly at superspeedways like Daytona, every driver will need to bring their A-game. The upcoming races will likely be filled with drama, excitement, and potential upsets as drivers either solidify their positions or fight for a chance to compete for the championship.

Each race is more than just a competition; it’s a test of skill, strategy, and resilience. As fans, we can expect to witness thrilling displays of racing prowess as the drivers navigate the twists and turns, both on the track and within the playoff standings.

In this high-stakes environment, every point, every position, and every race matters. The excitement builds as we approach the final two races of the regular season, and the narrative of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series continues to unfold.