After the initial safety car deployment during the Formula 1 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, three drivers made the bold decision to switch their tires early in the race: Esteban Ocon, Gabriel Bortoleto, and Jack Doohan. All three racers had started on medium tires but opted to switch to hard tires, hoping to complete the race without further pit stops, provided they could manage their hard tires effectively for the duration of the event. Ocon and Bortoleto committed to this strategy, while Doohan ultimately made another pit stop on lap 32.
Unfortunately for these three, their tactical choice did not yield significant benefits. Although they gained positions during the pit stop cycle, they soon found themselves slipping back in the rankings due to the time advantage held by competitors who opted to pit later. Ocon ended the race in 14th position, while Doohan managed to overtake Bortoleto, finishing 18th as the race drew to a close.
In an alternate scenario, Yuki Tsunoda, who had resumed racing after an early-lap incident with Pierre Gasly at Turn 4, could have joined Ocon and Bortoleto in their strategic gamble if he had not sustained damage. The question arises: could Tsunoda have scored points by adopting the same tire strategy?
To explore the potential for Tsunoda to achieve a points finish, we can analyze the degradation of the hard tires based on the performance of Ocon and Bortoleto. We will consider the best-case scenario for both drivers and simulate Tsunoda’s performance. After the safety car, these three drivers caught up to the back of the field, and we will position Tsunoda at the rear of that group, starting our analysis from lap four.
Next, we will estimate the time difference between Tsunoda and the combined performance of Ocon and Bortoleto, based on previous race data. Tsunoda’s performance has shown a rate of 100.838%, while the theoretical combined driver, whom we will dub “Bortocon,” clocked in at 101.932%. Although Tsunoda’s results from the Racing Bulls are factored in, we will also account for the slower pace that comes with navigating through a congested pack of cars. This approach will help us to avoid overly optimistic assumptions about Tsunoda’s potential performance.
Observing Bortoleto’s race closely, we note that between laps 21 and 27, he experienced a notable time loss as he was overtaken by other drivers who had completed their pit stops. Ocon also lost time during this phase, albeit not as significantly as Bortoleto. To ensure our estimates remain conservative, we will not overly smooth these fluctuations, as they reflect the reality that Tsunoda may have faced pressure from faster competitors on newer tires.
To accurately position Tsunoda at the back of the field, we will factor in the time spent under the safety car, allowing him to catch up. Notably, Bortoleto was half a second behind Ocon at the restart, so we will apply the same time gap between Tsunoda and Bortoleto. As Tsunoda begins to work in his hard tires, he records an opening lap time of 1 minute 37.128 seconds, followed by a 1 minute 35.791 seconds on his second lap.
As the race progresses, Tsunoda steadily improves his lap times, achieving consistent runs in the low 1 minute 34 seconds range. He occasionally dips into the 1 minute 35 seconds territory while battling through traffic but begins to clock high 1 minute 33 seconds laps by lap 33. However, even with these improvements, he still trails behind Max Verstappen, who is on fresh hard tires, by over a second per lap. As tire degradation sets in during the final laps, Tsunoda’s pace drops back into the 1 minute 34 seconds range.
By compiling Tsunoda’s lap times and factoring in the time spent under the safety car, our calculations suggest that he could have finished the race in eighth place, crossing the line at 1 hour 21 minutes and 50.586 seconds. This timing would place him ahead of notable competitors like Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon, while being approximately five seconds behind Lewis Hamilton.
Although this scenario presents an optimistic outlook, it demonstrates that had Tsunoda avoided significant damage, he might have been able to gain positions and secure a points finish through effective management of his hard tires—even amidst a challenging race environment. The 25-second gap between Hamilton and Sainz at the race’s conclusion would likely have been manageable for Tsunoda, even allowing for some variability in lap times.
While this strategy would not have elevated a top contender to a better finishing position, it certainly could have provided an opportunity for drivers caught in difficult situations—such as Tsunoda—who needed a daring move to salvage something from the race after an early misstep.
Through this analysis, we can appreciate the complexities involved in tire strategy during a Formula 1 race. The decisions made by drivers and teams can drastically influence the outcome, and as seen in this instance, a simple change in strategy can open up possibilities for unexpected results. The interplay of tire management, race conditions, and strategic decision-making remains a crucial aspect of the sport, showcasing the need for drivers and teams to remain adaptable and responsive to the evolving dynamics of each race.
